Statistical Analysis of Straits of Mackinac Line 5 Worst Case Spill Scenarios

University of Michigan, Graham Sustainability Institute, Water Center
http://graham.umich.edu/water/project/mackinac-oil-spill (full report)
http://bit.ly/1MNZe4O (summary titled “Worst Case Oil Spill: High Risk Areas Near the Straits of Mackinac”

[From Press Release] A new U-M Water Center report highlights the use of a computer model to predict the fate of a hypothetical oil spill in the Straits of Mackinac. The report, entitled “Statistical Analysis of Straits of Mackinac Line 5 Worst Case
Spill Scenarios,” pinpoints areas at highest risk along the Lake Huron-Michigan
shoreline and presents quantitative information about the level of risk to both island and coastal communities.

In creating the report, research scientist David Schwab simulated 840 hypothetical
spill cases, all with the same initial release point just south of the center of the
Line 5 pipeline. These cases provide a wide range of possible spill impacts during
the ice-free season. The methods used in this model are equivalent to those used in
the operational NOAA oil spill model. The model covers a wide variety of weather
conditions, from the spring to the fall, but does not address ice conditions
in the winter…

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