Impacts of the Clean Power Plan on U.S. Natural Gas Markets and Pipeline Infrastructure

ICF for the Advanced Energy Economy Institute (free download with registration)
http://info.aee.net/impacts-of-clean-power-plan-on-us-natural-gas

[From Press Release] An analysis prepared by Advanced Energy Economy Institute using the models of Virginia-based ICF International, a leading authority on natural gas markets, finds that existing and planned natural gas infrastructure will be able to handle the bulk of future natural gas needs under EPA’s proposed Clean Power Plan (CPP). The analysis shows that additional natural gas pipeline expenditures under the CPP would be modest: 3% to 7% more than currently planned through 2030…

This report responds to concerns raised by some stakeholders, including the North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC), that states might rely heavily on natural gas generation for compliance with the CPP, creating stress on gas pipeline capacity and ultimately impacting electric system reliability. These parties have suggested that addressing the concerns might require expensive expansion of natural gas infrastructure over a challenging timeframe.

Using assumptions provided by the AEE Institute, ICF International modeled a series of scenarios. The analysis looked at pipeline expansions between 2016 and 2030 without the CPP, and then determined the incremental capacity requirements prompted by CPP implementation. AEE Institute also directed ICF International to examine how unexpectedly low future gas prices – a “stress test” scenario in terms of pipeline requirements – could impact the results by increasing gas demand…

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