National Research Council
http://download.nap.edu/cart/deliver.cgi?&record_id=13108 [free PDF with registration]
[From Preface] This study was requested by the Senate Appropriations Committee in response to what that committee saw as unsustainable rates of increase in the cost of security at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). In current-year dollars, security costs have increased from $550 million in 2002 to around $930 million in 2010….
The specific question that the authoring committee of this report (the study committee) was asked to address is whether risk-based approaches, including probabilistic risk assessment, could be used to improve DOE’s methods for determining its security posture and requirements. As described in this report, the study committee judges that the conceptual approaches used in risk assessments for contexts other than security can provide a helpful framework for DOE security….
It is the committee’s view that the various security elements need to be addressed in an integrated way. The committee judges that the current approach underinvests in some areas and that better integration is needed to plan for some types of attacks on nuclear weapons or SNM. [H/T Greenwire]