International Energy Outlook (IEA has made this available on the open web)
http://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2011/WEO2011_GoldenAgeofGasReport.pdf
[Dot Earth by Andrew Revkin] The news release heading on the new report summarizes the forces in play:
Ample supplies, robust emerging markets and uncertainty about nuclear power all point to a prominent role for gas in global energy mix; prospect that natural gas, after decades of volatility and political tensions related to limited supplies, is entering a “golden age.”
Here’s the news release… And here’s how the report summarizes the “golden age” answer, and how it addresses the issues that have arisen around hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, in huge shale reserves:
A Golden Age?
Natural gas is a flexible fuel that is used extensively in power generation and competes increasingly in most end-use sectors. It offers environmental benefits when compared to other fossil fuels. Gas resources are abundant, well spread across all regions and recent technological advances have supported increased global trade. However, there will always be uncertainties: lower economic growth, greater cost or other obstacles to unconventional gas production, higher achievements in energy efficiency, changes that improve the relative competitiveness of other fuels; but uncertainty can also work the other way. Based on the assumptions of the GAS Scenario, from 2010 gas use will rise by more than 50% and account for over 25% of world energy demand in 2035 – surely a prospect to designate the Golden Age of Gas.
Fracking?
A key element in the success of North American shale gas production has been combining cost-effective horizontal drilling, a technique developed over the last 30 years, with hydraulic fracturing, which has been practised since the 1940s. Markets can deliver a remarkably flexible response, but there is a limit to the pace at which the capacity of the oil field-services sector to deliver these technologies can be expanded and unit costs be reduced to levels at which they can be widely and successfully deployed….
