Natural Resources Defense Council / by David Cohen-Tanugi
http://tinyurl.com/2w3lre2
[Barbara Finamore's Switchboard Blog from NRDC] NRDC recently released a working paper analyzing China’s commitment to reduce its carbon intensity by 40-45 percent by 2020 compared to 2005 levels. In our analysis, we examined three scenarios based in part on different assumptions about China’s energy intensity reductions in the 12th and 13th Five Year Plans:
In the Previous Commitments Scenario, China fulfills only the energy intensity reduction targets it set under the 11th Five Year Plan, and enacts no additional policies in the 12th and 13th Five Year Plans, leading to a 31 percent reduction in energy intensity and 37 percent reduction in carbon intensity by 2020 compared to 2005 levels.
In the Extended Efforts Scenario, China makes extended efforts including reducing its energy intensity by 16 percent and 14 percent in the 12th and 13th Five Year Plans, respectively, leading to a 42 percent reduction in energy intensity and 48 percent reduction in carbon intensity by 2020 compared to 2005 levels.
In the Economic Restructuring Scenario, China is successful in achieving fundamental economic restructuring, making consecutive 20 percent reductions in energy intensity in the 12th and 13th Five Year Plan periods, leading to a 49 percent reduction in energy intensity and 57 percent reduction in carbon intensity by 2020 compared to 2005 levels.
Michael A. Levi’s take: http://blogs.cfr.org/levi/category/china/
